tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22086630668668251352024-03-16T09:09:54.199+08:00香魚的存錢桶以個人關心投資方向為主,輔以基金,美股...lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.comBlogger386125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-7359984886901262622024-03-08T18:04:00.001+08:002024-03-08T18:04:41.108+08:00投資策略變動前 紀錄一下原趨勢<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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文章提到:
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p>先丟圖:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZQLVVZkf7z28XrCnVLjzeztzI3aIWK3-qzB2D3g4olXyh2-XdmKcxgh8TE7z1v812vU31gYWHVpVC5qn6WejQB5fpF525yPaNBC4F81yrg_dz8vFaCnoZXxfGj9N1xqfpGrHa2DSL7802tQBO2Sq0GtuVVxBAPECz7fWiufy7ueDQ_i_wsRc1iK66ZzM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1098" data-original-width="855" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZQLVVZkf7z28XrCnVLjzeztzI3aIWK3-qzB2D3g4olXyh2-XdmKcxgh8TE7z1v812vU31gYWHVpVC5qn6WejQB5fpF525yPaNBC4F81yrg_dz8vFaCnoZXxfGj9N1xqfpGrHa2DSL7802tQBO2Sq0GtuVVxBAPECz7fWiufy7ueDQ_i_wsRc1iK66ZzM=w238-h305" width="238" /></a></div><br />
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</span></p><p>台股第一季就挑戰2萬點,在2萬點附近開槓桿....聽起來危危的!!! </p><p>100%持股似乎已經不能滿足我</p><p>但風險意識永遠要擺在第一位 , 在可控的風險下,尋求最適投資解,是我始終如一的投資風格</p><p>投資之路即將邁入新的領域...</p><p>前置作業中可預見證券資產趨勢圖會失真就截圖先記錄一下</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrTPTu3PIqQ9hrnD6hfTq9sF6jySK9oPgfjVbr3r4mwA3-XetUXxhKIl8UqrcTGMSOMzjbcHNItfbxV8IcyF0fQ4vlo9LqYePG_IXSqGKBdOinM_xaGo4XhjooTRd5udWDmnFApWieQksqpYZK6R9igw6VyNVtRBjs-1RcvAasAR6rCHFb4v3pyWqg35c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1108" data-original-width="579" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgrTPTu3PIqQ9hrnD6hfTq9sF6jySK9oPgfjVbr3r4mwA3-XetUXxhKIl8UqrcTGMSOMzjbcHNItfbxV8IcyF0fQ4vlo9LqYePG_IXSqGKBdOinM_xaGo4XhjooTRd5udWDmnFApWieQksqpYZK6R9igw6VyNVtRBjs-1RcvAasAR6rCHFb4v3pyWqg35c=w157-h301" width="157" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-33668211584490147922024-01-04T09:08:00.000+08:002024-01-04T09:08:09.671+08:002023交易回顧及資產狀況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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</p><p>對大部份交易者而言,經過2022的洗禮後2023都是值得歡喜的多頭年!! 以報酬指數來說,全年上漲34%,大盤指數收17930距離萬八也只差一步之遙</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVtfrHxH4ifj19J8pRuHdlzOaCHYmtr_531BKoa-FLkaqbPmyB8ATvJ8WLOwZRIZwTzUKIq3mMCUS-txBbGQmclPf8w-AAUX_EkA-8qK3WkZGBt2KA_tXBMXVZFkTPWBgJMzP8lfKupYonN2edNUM1r2Z0Nqp5Mav_vvqUGIFfZ-DPz2YvkHE0V-b9nA/s1199/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1199" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVtfrHxH4ifj19J8pRuHdlzOaCHYmtr_531BKoa-FLkaqbPmyB8ATvJ8WLOwZRIZwTzUKIq3mMCUS-txBbGQmclPf8w-AAUX_EkA-8qK3WkZGBt2KA_tXBMXVZFkTPWBgJMzP8lfKupYonN2edNUM1r2Z0Nqp5Mav_vvqUGIFfZ-DPz2YvkHE0V-b9nA/w432-h288/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" width="432" /></a></div><br />
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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線圖資料來源:奇摩股市</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">2023個人操作(交易系統化第14年)概況如下:</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">A.熱度:</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q1:11%</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q2:27%</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q3:34%</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q4:27%</span></p><p>交易次數比2022年微增12%</p><p>B.績效:</p><div><b><span style="color: yellow;">★</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">2023總</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">損益</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">約+34.47%★</span>[1.+4.+(2.*3.)](達成年度收益高於定存利率的標準)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>1. 配息率:6.35%(高持股忽略現金收益)</b></div><div><b><br /></b>2. 浮動損益率:+16.45% (防:+5.59%;攻: +20.22%) </div><div><br /></div><div>3. 年末持股率:100%<<持續整年維持高持股<br /><br /></div><div>4. 實現損益率:+11.67%</div><div><br /></div><div>5. 勝率:68%<<<<回歸常態區間</div><div><strong><br /></strong></div><div><strong>6.</strong><strong>單筆金額益/損比:2.2</strong></div><p>平均益單:金額比前一年+74%</p><p>平均損單:金額比前一年+35%</p><p>雖說平均損單金額增加,但平均益單金額增加更多,所以對系統及心理建設來說都是無礙</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKN8v9RiNk5WPvr8f6bR0Qyma0xMhCZ_3QM8RjDowNU5DUr3fthefW2vH5hLhQJiFnKfMLECmjUbAIBzTGQI6ZPSvTjyui6TaR63KKDHuVFS7sIdvculF2Vk5NbWVO7R6LRgErmAEAHPY0uSquxz3wR9WarbT-Qo_nBoXqlNNTFb1OT4V2JxfmvmZC0m8/s1199/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1199" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKN8v9RiNk5WPvr8f6bR0Qyma0xMhCZ_3QM8RjDowNU5DUr3fthefW2vH5hLhQJiFnKfMLECmjUbAIBzTGQI6ZPSvTjyui6TaR63KKDHuVFS7sIdvculF2Vk5NbWVO7R6LRgErmAEAHPY0uSquxz3wR9WarbT-Qo_nBoXqlNNTFb1OT4V2JxfmvmZC0m8/w561-h333/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" width="561" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>2023是AI爆發年,但AI相關個股並非持股標的,對績效並無助益,反而是後疫情回升股對績效注益較大,受惠高持股策略在沒有吃到AI紅利下,仍有略優大盤的表現<div>智冠於第4季傳出經營權之爭(增加股權推升股價),普萊德受惠於網通題材使其兩者居已實踐獲利來源前兩名</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi407DBjdi8tbTKyOQm2PLUJnMuZwRdn0U3IrbR64SMwXmWw64PO6k6tRDUPpFqETgpfGQP3OeL7GUAYfZsK9r062DDVQMluRUFg4tHiHgusXQx0b_WkwBCz_4f9PZkv4HQZYIcyBfmGyidv0lag0ujCiqx_QjjTmxRL7lHT_e0MCiYlyJIjPUNWo_2YqA/s1043/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1043" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi407DBjdi8tbTKyOQm2PLUJnMuZwRdn0U3IrbR64SMwXmWw64PO6k6tRDUPpFqETgpfGQP3OeL7GUAYfZsK9r062DDVQMluRUFg4tHiHgusXQx0b_WkwBCz_4f9PZkv4HQZYIcyBfmGyidv0lag0ujCiqx_QjjTmxRL7lHT_e0MCiYlyJIjPUNWo_2YqA/w518-h353/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" width="518" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>至於損失來源多為遵守紀律停損,以及面對高利率環境所做的減碼策略<br /><p>C.證券資產趨勢:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAHfI7egcQXCdNkCtIvmQQHaKRARtUnuG7sSJXWzFjMdxRDi4cUFwTDwdbWFuuhXzY0Hg9zZKDQNU3IWVrPzUdAFD6DLEkMsvQ5THoVzvXG3UqP6xr345mAwEGJQDqgM0LPiNvK0mb47Rpw3ip_YnhEEGm7bA6CqlcpE1UC1pfpBiQzP-akho1j86J7SM/s920/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="898" data-original-width="920" height="469" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAHfI7egcQXCdNkCtIvmQQHaKRARtUnuG7sSJXWzFjMdxRDi4cUFwTDwdbWFuuhXzY0Hg9zZKDQNU3IWVrPzUdAFD6DLEkMsvQ5THoVzvXG3UqP6xr345mAwEGJQDqgM0LPiNvK0mb47Rpw3ip_YnhEEGm7bA6CqlcpE1UC1pfpBiQzP-akho1j86J7SM/w482-h469/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" width="482" /></a></div><br /><p>左低右高,趨勢向上</p><p>D類股市值佔比圖:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZSFZ49tQorYHaekUMwHrcW28IewV2F1-8ajbvqpYSQqNw05kaYrs1X5Ow5pp-7t2PSkaZ4T3YT44x_XtUefodf4l6-IvuJc4HaKKFCOEIOE8Cd-pio8ct7ulTW3MHr1btZnrKBsVsyq7ra9TGmKxp3ou9_rY4Cy8BWrquCwEhzfDReE9c_WxkRAR7aGk/s996/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="863" data-original-width="996" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZSFZ49tQorYHaekUMwHrcW28IewV2F1-8ajbvqpYSQqNw05kaYrs1X5Ow5pp-7t2PSkaZ4T3YT44x_XtUefodf4l6-IvuJc4HaKKFCOEIOE8Cd-pio8ct7ulTW3MHr1btZnrKBsVsyq7ra9TGmKxp3ou9_rY4Cy8BWrquCwEhzfDReE9c_WxkRAR7aGk/w482-h417/%E6%9C%AA%E5%91%BD%E5%90%8D.png" width="482" /></a></div><br /><p>至20231229持股共41檔(比 Q3-1) ,<br /></p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約49%(比Q3+3%)</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約76%(比Q3+5%)</p><p>系統貝他值:0.39</p><p>電信+特別股:5%--->5%(0%)</p><p>電子:21%--->23%(+2%)</p><p>通路耗材:15%--->16%(+1%)</p><p>傳產:31%--->28%(-3%)</p><p>娛樂:14%--->12%(-2%)</p><p>金融:14%--->16%(+2%)</p><p>E結論:</p><p>烏俄戰爭持續,以巴戰火也難息,地緣政治風險升高</p><p>中美貿易戰導致貿易全球化裂解,推升產品價格</p><p>中國房市崩盤,經濟面臨通縮,計畫性經濟受到考驗</p><p>美國壓制通脹維持高利率,債務成本提升,政府關門戲碼不時上演,還有總統選舉要忙</p><p><span class="fullpo">
AI如何融入人類生活,介入工作分工,屆時又是怎樣的社會樣態?</span></p><p>高持股策略享受多頭年的果實,面對未來的不確定性,繼續考驗心理素質強度</p><p>紀錄一下,比特幣報價已超過USD4萬</p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></div>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-37212403904270206252023-09-30T09:22:00.000+08:002023-09-30T09:22:14.086+08:002023第三季台幣證券資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih6QDznkI67G0hUlymf9Q8xQ6F7hy2mb1-9V9WYUgZ9w4pWIevY2QVP7iat0cYOr0YloPI61cyiGAJoCaaKUG0X951qBLZccqoqL1FmZvVL54bCHN_TPj56qdP4U4a-o044mWdN_TmPuerviaujxKsDwM7t1fw9QFcbCoC0js6sm_lz565af5uVutcnDw/s830/%E8%AD%89%E5%88%B8%E8%B3%87%E5%B1%95%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A220230928.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="830" height="409" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih6QDznkI67G0hUlymf9Q8xQ6F7hy2mb1-9V9WYUgZ9w4pWIevY2QVP7iat0cYOr0YloPI61cyiGAJoCaaKUG0X951qBLZccqoqL1FmZvVL54bCHN_TPj56qdP4U4a-o044mWdN_TmPuerviaujxKsDwM7t1fw9QFcbCoC0js6sm_lz565af5uVutcnDw/w519-h409/%E8%AD%89%E5%88%B8%E8%B3%87%E5%B1%95%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A220230928.png" width="519" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">趨勢圖來源:集保存摺APP</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOt7Sr3WG_qfAzYirOBiCvVhWr2yqfFdOfV8xGRXmQb4fvBBII0sbyqvef6fC1Wn29Gly-it7V-BnpgmNaqhWsRgudfWMi_U8_lVZTuVcr9igAo2_JFHpqyZDNJqToMcMA9N92xnDAbS6BNrEUCN592mHlJAhRiGzDlnx1tL8DmJJW5kKezBEMyvJEq8I/s1087/%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B20230928.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1087" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOt7Sr3WG_qfAzYirOBiCvVhWr2yqfFdOfV8xGRXmQb4fvBBII0sbyqvef6fC1Wn29Gly-it7V-BnpgmNaqhWsRgudfWMi_U8_lVZTuVcr9igAo2_JFHpqyZDNJqToMcMA9N92xnDAbS6BNrEUCN592mHlJAhRiGzDlnx1tL8DmJJW5kKezBEMyvJEq8I/w534-h394/%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B20230928.png" width="534" /></a></div><br /><p>與6/30比較:</p><p>電信+特別股:4%--->5%(+1%)</p><p>電子:21%--->21%(0%)</p><p>通路耗材:15%--->15%(0%)</p><p>傳產:30%--->31%(+1%)</p><p>娛樂:16%--->14%(-2%)</p><p>金融:14%--->14%(0%)</p><p>整體持股比重與上季相比由99%--->99%(0%)</p><p>目前持股42檔與比上季-3</p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約46%(比23Q2 +3%)</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約71%(比23Q2 +2%)</p><p>小結:</p><p>第3季是除權息旺季,趨勢圖如預期的受其影響呈現下行,期間利用半年報資訊進行汰弱留強,造成持股集中度提升,整體仍維持超高持股比重</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-33416727124831373502023-07-04T13:20:00.001+08:002023-07-04T13:20:25.682+08:0020230630 台幣證券資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYcltXNPCyzch0nux3fq0Gj_iSRrZrwxRY9SqwLRMzeGAPslIdbg9U_s6j3gD0mdFX_Z3rs7WqocWz-x1HBFq6MGpnl7Ie0nWyZEOHP0G1XguWkU2KfsP9AEFajxEuboghLEy9_7GCYBrMlk42cxcQjPTiJ5UIvA2XDXEHa6IXrb2lp5NS4aKIoo_xaog/s815/202306%E8%AD%89%E5%88%B8%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="767" data-original-width="815" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYcltXNPCyzch0nux3fq0Gj_iSRrZrwxRY9SqwLRMzeGAPslIdbg9U_s6j3gD0mdFX_Z3rs7WqocWz-x1HBFq6MGpnl7Ie0nWyZEOHP0G1XguWkU2KfsP9AEFajxEuboghLEy9_7GCYBrMlk42cxcQjPTiJ5UIvA2XDXEHa6IXrb2lp5NS4aKIoo_xaog/w436-h410/202306%E8%AD%89%E5%88%B8%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2.png" width="436" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">趨勢圖來源:集保存摺APP</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMD1Q5Pri7w909i3FQDcWGNOyspsp0Zt3nNqmmCJT9mLFbFUZcDymv53yc6KlUWo4pSVveYtzPaeF63YvpetGUGSK9fghAbfCR_n71lQ6p5X2ma4JVfye3MH_5P9jH7gLKFbPQ3PVlyZnY3B1xIxGrdC3SVf7RqHdY1yQQKI5cJFB_6Thgs61oPQM3pY/s998/20230630%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="998" height="421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMD1Q5Pri7w909i3FQDcWGNOyspsp0Zt3nNqmmCJT9mLFbFUZcDymv53yc6KlUWo4pSVveYtzPaeF63YvpetGUGSK9fghAbfCR_n71lQ6p5X2ma4JVfye3MH_5P9jH7gLKFbPQ3PVlyZnY3B1xIxGrdC3SVf7RqHdY1yQQKI5cJFB_6Thgs61oPQM3pY/w517-h421/20230630%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B.png" width="517" /></a></div><br /></div><p>與3/31比較:</p><p>電信+特別股:5%--->4%(-1%)</p><p>電子:25%--->21%(-4%)</p><p>通路耗材:15%--->15%(0%)</p><p>傳產:31%--->30%(-1%)</p><p>娛樂:14%--->16%(+2%)</p><p>金融:10%--->14%(+4%)</p><p>整體持股比重與上季相比由99%--->99%(0%)</p><p>目前持股45檔與比上季+2</p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約43%(比23Q1 -7%)</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約69%(比23Q1 -6%)</p><p>小結:</p><p>Q2延續Q1漲勢 目前已來到萬七,也利用季報公布檢視並調整投資組合,Q2末至<span> Q3中為</span>除權息旺季,證券資產趨勢大概率會轉為下行,也算是"另類"被動降風險機制</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-70180803071798663672023-04-06T10:59:00.004+08:002023-04-06T11:33:29.423+08:0020230331 資產概況 <span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiicImfvpc-9Wtu_WCY7SkOzS7Qo0Pd-4BTgQAjvR43PW_bvn02Ta4viBU6U2MIVhzBucI2M_Cl6kRGw1ZarXQaOzunauOWnctXPqPsrfeaAkyHrWqYvkGjOy_CYf91D2dSaei2q8z9sQvg2BOyO1KDzSiRc83BlJ6Y-SuSYLhf89xr5IIoV4YRHyNy/s789/20230331s3m.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="789" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiicImfvpc-9Wtu_WCY7SkOzS7Qo0Pd-4BTgQAjvR43PW_bvn02Ta4viBU6U2MIVhzBucI2M_Cl6kRGw1ZarXQaOzunauOWnctXPqPsrfeaAkyHrWqYvkGjOy_CYf91D2dSaei2q8z9sQvg2BOyO1KDzSiRc83BlJ6Y-SuSYLhf89xr5IIoV4YRHyNy/w418-h355/20230331s3m.png" width="418" /></a></div> 趨勢圖來源:集保存摺APP<br /><p><br /></p><p>
p>
</p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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線圖資料來源:<strong><span style="color: red;">奇摩股市</span></strong><span style="color: red;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiUYRAdtksew7qTCkdEwYVxDSUM8qI6Q7W9OA6ZrPVz4qYGj7nlOYMopG7gioPTU7E5nJzTEaoTAFT6sh5DAlPUhqnRuXZAPycJP3rPiGH85_SVfAcP7__ksOnOurOESqCJnrx83aqOFdgZUU-A11gqLHAAa9r5S5FR7cGM5wmDRoxaZNYJwovVeW1/s1234/20230331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E6%97%A5%E7%B7%9A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1234" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiUYRAdtksew7qTCkdEwYVxDSUM8qI6Q7W9OA6ZrPVz4qYGj7nlOYMopG7gioPTU7E5nJzTEaoTAFT6sh5DAlPUhqnRuXZAPycJP3rPiGH85_SVfAcP7__ksOnOurOESqCJnrx83aqOFdgZUU-A11gqLHAAa9r5S5FR7cGM5wmDRoxaZNYJwovVeW1/w449-h265/20230331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E6%97%A5%E7%B7%9A.png" width="449" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhyTbaaiWySusqXPaSQmSHSKuqPCL0JG3bd3is4stPZRz3p7SkBt1dZKSXEzUryG6yLX0yyp8vADr4nPCCFwJOvkstqYKhSG_JvQoDeWou9K7_zem2fkkscnCIcz9XLi9FZAs9YBRJvtLq_WC5uvr2SpwVP2MGl8yWKJZpFhJGr-D4GlGnMC7Qwypg/s949/20230331%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="949" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhyTbaaiWySusqXPaSQmSHSKuqPCL0JG3bd3is4stPZRz3p7SkBt1dZKSXEzUryG6yLX0yyp8vADr4nPCCFwJOvkstqYKhSG_JvQoDeWou9K7_zem2fkkscnCIcz9XLi9FZAs9YBRJvtLq_WC5uvr2SpwVP2MGl8yWKJZpFhJGr-D4GlGnMC7Qwypg/w473-h355/20230331%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%E5%80%BC.png" width="473" /></a></div><br /><p>與12/31比較:</p><p>電信+特別股:5%--->5%(0%)</p><p>電子:27%--->25%(-2%)</p><p>通路耗材:15%--->15%(0%)</p><p>傳產:31%--->31%(0%)</p><p>娛樂:10%--->14%(+4%)</p><p>金融:12%--->10%(-2%)</p><p>整體持股比重與上季相比由98%--->99%(+1%)</p><p>目前持股43檔與上季相當</p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約50%(比22Q4 -1%)</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約75%(比22Q4 -3%)</p><p>總結:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGahILHlQANRQ43rod0BH2_Ib7ZjQx8ixEVNImJ94hjc7KBGrVp63WxoYgBbfi8fjFWRdCz8pId79YjBuhFg_mzBKXcUVsFL36p5-dOqx43DRGGGT-SlHXqgsy4f0_Sovq3idHOaGxXaQ1BYMkMAgaoRFfUqNHQCWj9zNYKN4aWPqxkQvwTPIazZTl/s1202/20230331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E5%91%A8%E7%B7%9A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="821" data-original-width="1202" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGahILHlQANRQ43rod0BH2_Ib7ZjQx8ixEVNImJ94hjc7KBGrVp63WxoYgBbfi8fjFWRdCz8pId79YjBuhFg_mzBKXcUVsFL36p5-dOqx43DRGGGT-SlHXqgsy4f0_Sovq3idHOaGxXaQ1BYMkMAgaoRFfUqNHQCWj9zNYKN4aWPqxkQvwTPIazZTl/w458-h289/20230331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E5%91%A8%E7%B7%9A.png" width="458" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p>第一季結束大盤距202201高點18400仍差約2500點(-13.76%),其中包含除息因子,另以報酬指數來看第一季底指數為32704距202201高點36749也差約4000點(-10%),而本投資模組2022高點落在4月份(可參見前文:2022交易回顧及資產概況),低點落在9月份,至目前2023第一季底已經突破前高,這是在維持高持股比重下(不擇時進出),一個重要的里程碑,投資組合完成填權息,這可是在之前持股比重高高低低情況下,證券資產趨勢圖所無法表現出來的!!!</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqUgrlGN80UJxrwMjYq_MPfr5Jd9kASw5QyRw4W3hSaI0YFN3207q7K-CRmrkc4P_ofkM9G09zTwzyEKUqUmkDA6Qweak0ItelMTtRZkU0x4TwDkCmD5zyDpF_OSOLhqOuqG7JxFcQc7JhHFm165zuCmhP8kFDdxIC_VDISuJpYeP9wxx7wrGwEAR2/s807/20230331s12m.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="807" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqUgrlGN80UJxrwMjYq_MPfr5Jd9kASw5QyRw4W3hSaI0YFN3207q7K-CRmrkc4P_ofkM9G09zTwzyEKUqUmkDA6Qweak0ItelMTtRZkU0x4TwDkCmD5zyDpF_OSOLhqOuqG7JxFcQc7JhHFm165zuCmhP8kFDdxIC_VDISuJpYeP9wxx7wrGwEAR2/w463-h394/20230331s12m.png" width="463" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-25334587070386382862023-01-15T11:54:00.001+08:002023-01-15T11:54:42.389+08:002022交易回顧及資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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2022總算過去了,10月初個人新冠確診,故2022第三季證券資產趨勢沒有更新</p><p>回頭看2022大盤指數一路下行至10底見底,展開一波反彈行情(暫定為反彈或築底)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoIevujugDPV_NSRQ8nydW_-50z2PxIlVLGviE92QV4PIpvgu87I34A-MHVgmPGmVzukZX--lrkMIwRykcx1uGt3Pfvw6Z8ZcwaiFzVg8HRJDgRJ4SldxYK1-bRwBtVAnQRJuwljCYsILMwOIOmyxou_5Ou2qsQBSTAX5zicLOb8BUcSPiw9CvPXBg/s2172/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="962" data-original-width="2172" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoIevujugDPV_NSRQ8nydW_-50z2PxIlVLGviE92QV4PIpvgu87I34A-MHVgmPGmVzukZX--lrkMIwRykcx1uGt3Pfvw6Z8ZcwaiFzVg8HRJDgRJ4SldxYK1-bRwBtVAnQRJuwljCYsILMwOIOmyxou_5Ou2qsQBSTAX5zicLOb8BUcSPiw9CvPXBg/w568-h253/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" width="568" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>2022台股加權報酬跌幅約18%,可稱為空頭年,解封考驗產業鏈的庫存調整,及重創金融股的防疫保單,再加上台海情勢緊張權值股台積電等被外資提款,終結自2019開始的三年多頭</p><p><br /></p><p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p>2022年個人操作(交易系統化第13年)概況如下:</p><p>A.熱度:</p><p>Q1:55%</p><p>Q2:30%</p><p>Q3: 0%</p><p>Q4:15%</p><p>交易次數比2021年銳減67%</p><p>空頭年對於只做多方單邊操作的我,交易熱度降低是無法避免</p><p><br /></p><p>B.績效:</p><div><b><span style="color: yellow;">★</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">2022總</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">損益</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">約+2.65%★</span>[1.+4.+(2.*3.)](達成年度收益高於定存利率的標準)</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>1. 配息率:6.06%(計入現金[99%,6.06%+1%,1%]則為5.9995%)</b></div><div><b><br /></b>2. 浮動損益率:-2.71% (防:+0.27%;攻: +1.99%) </div><div><br /></div><div>3. 年末持股率:98%<<持續整年維持高持股<br /><br /></div><div>4. 實現損益率:-0.69%</div><div><br /></div><div>5. 勝率:33%<<<<紀錄上第2低,只高於2015年,停損數增加拉低了勝率</div><div><strong><br /></strong></div><div><strong>6.</strong><strong>單筆金額益/損比:1.70<<只有2021年的一半不到,但基於逆勢方,雖不滿意尚能接受</strong></div><div><strong><br /></strong></div><p>平均益單:金額比前一年-32%</p><p>平均損單:金額比前一年+45%</p><p><span class="fullpo">已實現獲利金額佔比圖: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2xcXdR8oP6HUjCCrFPw_dkjHKZJLimndsrOcuC0Qr_DqNEf_9-IrPIKMVkvwfnvI0bCFpGNffaAVeDNRMvHwVK_zSkxHWnSJyJnBr0LAPo7Xw-gHf4xgHsPhmPTUima4M3qTA2ttkHx3w6YdlBLtBoLZNlmEGIfGEYfWgJ2Ia8FsjAFwDd9byWnEC/s583/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="583" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2xcXdR8oP6HUjCCrFPw_dkjHKZJLimndsrOcuC0Qr_DqNEf_9-IrPIKMVkvwfnvI0bCFpGNffaAVeDNRMvHwVK_zSkxHWnSJyJnBr0LAPo7Xw-gHf4xgHsPhmPTUima4M3qTA2ttkHx3w6YdlBLtBoLZNlmEGIfGEYfWgJ2Ia8FsjAFwDd9byWnEC/w455-h371/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" width="455" /></a></div><br /><span class="fullpo"><br /></span><p></p><p>已實現損失金額佔比圖:(停損增加拉高了其他比重)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_6koLuCjkb__-jhqg9oaP0JtmcxQkwP5XuTmyD4KcvZ24jJkzNeS2WBWcfyDNvY4_Jv7isigNIrq4Eg7SAutg1HrYzWckT4NW9QfXkVhmlYZLwIJtR7zOf23Zx3Bz3RDcERUU5YaVnEmhk7FpqeG9u0z1elp54lcxK-eh2ko7h7NdfqOKVd2K5s5Q/s687/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="687" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_6koLuCjkb__-jhqg9oaP0JtmcxQkwP5XuTmyD4KcvZ24jJkzNeS2WBWcfyDNvY4_Jv7isigNIrq4Eg7SAutg1HrYzWckT4NW9QfXkVhmlYZLwIJtR7zOf23Zx3Bz3RDcERUU5YaVnEmhk7FpqeG9u0z1elp54lcxK-eh2ko7h7NdfqOKVd2K5s5Q/w449-h374/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" width="449" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>C.證券資產趨勢:Q1漸高,Q3見底,最後持平,Q1跑贏大盤,而後趨勢與大盤相當 </p><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn4DA0zde77hNgi2ee9YXQDbelB4R67fap7B624qMF5PMAUJvJ64V9FClTSzkMSEutPkNRwaLOn_FC3i9rESv9EdAsQrnT8Y84NZtTMXS04sephgefStfEvlngIqkPsDG70yGlxHdHM1FZPjzc6FBoqDiaSZuzMjzLRUjXamkaMR499F4vvEuOQH6S/s867/20221231%E8%AD%89%E8%B3%87%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="867" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn4DA0zde77hNgi2ee9YXQDbelB4R67fap7B624qMF5PMAUJvJ64V9FClTSzkMSEutPkNRwaLOn_FC3i9rESv9EdAsQrnT8Y84NZtTMXS04sephgefStfEvlngIqkPsDG70yGlxHdHM1FZPjzc6FBoqDiaSZuzMjzLRUjXamkaMR499F4vvEuOQH6S/w454-h385/20221231%E8%AD%89%E8%B3%87%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2.png" width="454" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>D.類股市值佔比圖:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiezV_CwvMgywWGBnc0NvcCeGZY3rewN1y9pndNKCqJAkXpoq7bM2RpvzST-8l9znMFCRYkqpwQwA50gryFRiZB6uLc2zZ2dvUX2cisVfHHEr4cPFUMRCcJdcDxbLKo_uBR887WIQD1JSSZiuXh6FC5nuXvGbbVNezbGdhtH-NH5yDPkdzTN7dHPr3Z/s729/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="729" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiezV_CwvMgywWGBnc0NvcCeGZY3rewN1y9pndNKCqJAkXpoq7bM2RpvzST-8l9znMFCRYkqpwQwA50gryFRiZB6uLc2zZ2dvUX2cisVfHHEr4cPFUMRCcJdcDxbLKo_uBR887WIQD1JSSZiuXh6FC5nuXvGbbVNezbGdhtH-NH5yDPkdzTN7dHPr3Z/w478-h391/2022%E5%8F%B0%E8%82%A1%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2%E5%9C%96.png" width="478" /></a></div><div><br /></div>至20221231持股共43檔(比 Q2-1)且呈略為集中趨勢<br /><p>前10大持股佔市值比約51%(比Q2+6%)</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約78%(比Q2+4%)</p><p>電信+特別股:6%--->5%(-1%)</p><p>電子:27%--->27%(0%)</p><p>通路耗材:16%--->15%(-1%)</p><p>傳產:29%--->31%(+2%)</p><p>娛樂:9%--->10%(+1%)</p><p>金融:13%--->12%(-1%)</p><p><br /></p><p>E.結論:</p><p>1.由前12年的數據可知,本系統對於空頭年是較有抗擊能力,2022看來也是如此,高持股策略進入第二年度(維持高持股比重利用持股轉換代替降低持股,期望能減少再擇時進場的績效缺口),空頭年度的壓力測試算是初步通過</p><p>2.防疫保單之亂對於本年度投資組合績效產生估值外的負影響</p><p>3.高持股的心理壓力竟然比持有ETF來的低,感覺蠻奇妙</p><p>4.FED升息急行軍應已進入高原期,全球化分工正裂解為中美兩大陣營,關注這對於廠商訂價行為及通膨的影響</p><p><br /></p><p>題外話: 幣圈一天,人間十年, 一瞬比特上兩萬 20230115</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-28981382804015364602022-07-04T05:57:00.000+08:002022-07-04T05:57:10.293+08:0020220701資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-64678338423164717622022-03-31T21:51:00.000+08:002022-03-31T21:51:10.585+08:0020220331資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoWMLVfqry8UygOSfRPIX7TQwXjLMXGZbe1g0xgl8jCOLeSHb3tjgz4s3OLtM_PE3aKwRte9MkhSkoVw37J76LpnTVCyjFcQ8VZq_Jms1XiX6XrZJ-tQFDOLI6EMIsGugP_nonCLJ6JKpbIin7aemlI3k_6Wly6HsDL4ptB9yZ1qOBsA5RP2rQxmX7/s1035/20220331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1035" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoWMLVfqry8UygOSfRPIX7TQwXjLMXGZbe1g0xgl8jCOLeSHb3tjgz4s3OLtM_PE3aKwRte9MkhSkoVw37J76LpnTVCyjFcQ8VZq_Jms1XiX6XrZJ-tQFDOLI6EMIsGugP_nonCLJ6JKpbIin7aemlI3k_6Wly6HsDL4ptB9yZ1qOBsA5RP2rQxmX7/w378-h270/20220331%E5%A4%A7%E7%9B%A4%E8%B5%B0%E5%8B%A2.png" width="378" /></a></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyjk_GUQqNwHTI_QXHPjrG2i9ZVK75lLBBAYtYnUWDOKGCLrZth7Slv-ZXZeas4N-6nRpXUbCqBSSO0M6-VNOEWdmDoytmfht_UyBw5xdcl_31ByJnTF1k9iOnz_cSSRff4ebHsS3iZ70a6H_19fHGykXsolmy13b3Oxy1VCt0-uxH7Mqaz7KMfR7T/s865/20220331%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="578" data-original-width="865" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyjk_GUQqNwHTI_QXHPjrG2i9ZVK75lLBBAYtYnUWDOKGCLrZth7Slv-ZXZeas4N-6nRpXUbCqBSSO0M6-VNOEWdmDoytmfht_UyBw5xdcl_31ByJnTF1k9iOnz_cSSRff4ebHsS3iZ70a6H_19fHGykXsolmy13b3Oxy1VCt0-uxH7Mqaz7KMfR7T/w400-h293/20220331%E6%8C%81%E8%82%A1%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table>與12/30比較:<br /><p>電信+特別股:8%--->8%(+0%)</p><p>電子:29%--->29%(+0%)</p><p>通路耗材:12%--->14%(+2%)</p><p>傳產:29%--->28%(-1%)</p><p>娛樂:9%--->8%(-1%)</p><p>金融:13%--->13%(+0%)</p><p>ETF:0%--->0%(+0%)</p><p><br /></p><p>整體持股比重與上季比較則由96%--->98%(+2%)</p><p>目前持股42檔 </p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約45%</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約73%</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-60827615525147362802022-01-02T22:40:00.002+08:002022-01-02T23:04:44.590+08:002021交易回顧及20211230資產現況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
<p>
</p><p>
2021已過,台灣經歷了幾個月居家上班,遠距上課的日子,好在鴻海+台積電+慈濟等民間企業團體努力,讓疫苗得以大量來台,緩解疫情壓力,讓生活得以回到正軌</p><p>2021的台股延續2020年的走勢持續上漲,最後站上萬八,收在18218,也創下封關收盤新高價,但與2020年不同的是,台積電股價轉為區間整理,引領風騷的為航運族群,傳產,金融及電子類中元宇宙及車用也都各有表現,可說是百花齊放,2021是名符其實的大多頭年</p><p>
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</p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">2021年個人操作</span>(交易系統第12年)概況如下:</p><p><span class="fullpo">
A.熱度:</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q1(20%)</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q2(27%)</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q3(38%)</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">Q4(15%)</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">比前一年度增加166%,逼近2014年度交易高峰期</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
B.績效: </span></p><p><span class="fullpo"><b><span style="color: yellow;">★2021總損益</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">約+27.20%★</span>[1.+4.+(2.*3.)]</b></span></p><p><span class="fullpo"><b><br />1. 配息率:5.04%(計入現金[90%,5.04%+10%,0.5%]則為4.59%)</b></span></p><p><span class="fullpo"><b><br /></b>2. 浮動損益率:+2.70% (防:+5.48%;攻: +6.18%) </span></p><p>3. 年末持股率:96%>>>>>>紀錄以來最高的持股率;2021年整年算是維持高持股</p><p><span class="fullpo">4. 實現損益率:+20.02% </span></p><p><span class="fullpo">5. 勝率:58%</span></p><p><span class="fullpo"><strong>6.</strong><strong>單筆金額益/損比:3.63 >>>> 這也在12年的交易記錄中排入第三高位</strong></span></p><p>平均益單:金額比前一年+17%</p><p>平均損單:金額比前一年-28%</p><p>已實現獲利金額佔比圖: (因交易熱度提高,多出許多未滿5%的獲利,造成其他項比重提高)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjepDy-B-wjrKdHOt3lgaUe1wH7U8W3HcidMJvmKjCBzql_WlkskSsldkE8n81A2JLPI_LetSSRPbXrFeF7STYN0kzkB6DFcy9uLdmAeyGlfarVko_ay76on8Hbq3TaCaBSCEJVFRU9h7MRRuqbhRy9fZ46VYS2J4mLEEjT0vGh5clDiqz_ql1GIv1W=s574" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="574" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjepDy-B-wjrKdHOt3lgaUe1wH7U8W3HcidMJvmKjCBzql_WlkskSsldkE8n81A2JLPI_LetSSRPbXrFeF7STYN0kzkB6DFcy9uLdmAeyGlfarVko_ay76on8Hbq3TaCaBSCEJVFRU9h7MRRuqbhRy9fZ46VYS2J4mLEEjT0vGh5clDiqz_ql1GIv1W=w377-h346" width="377" /></a></div><br /><p>已實現損失金額佔比圖:(其他比重拉升原因:同獲利佔比圖)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh20S9NmNEF8_DeOArvy1HeNo4eexFpRb3r_LUekUeNCcQLd9yipEFTA-om2CQsoV8ckCf2J7QukshKepOE1ap3-VSeI_TYyyouNF9eOFuLE_VG6vNuJSvfVDEcPPNetHUZN4WYKkz8jH9PXwKTNFSrZoLbtzB22AKdJXJrezWCbIurUYqXm7XIPdHH=s574" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="574" height="339" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh20S9NmNEF8_DeOArvy1HeNo4eexFpRb3r_LUekUeNCcQLd9yipEFTA-om2CQsoV8ckCf2J7QukshKepOE1ap3-VSeI_TYyyouNF9eOFuLE_VG6vNuJSvfVDEcPPNetHUZN4WYKkz8jH9PXwKTNFSrZoLbtzB22AKdJXJrezWCbIurUYqXm7XIPdHH=w371-h339" width="371" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>C.證券資產趨勢</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span class="fullpo"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDAUPClDag9vKJzC2c88QaDQEcI4bPljl8TuPfKz8OfCSQPKcKx6XdNyyI2JbNQEcDq7iQUdZ04fKEAY6a6qSCyG_egZ6ngGEr9Yv8P0Bdgd8d0NFqi7o8VHzNrU-6XjSGEQzxe940lixb0qCaRgunqolTCQbpYmUSAy868sXqUwsF7eBh7YtuOie9=s623" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="623" height="377" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDAUPClDag9vKJzC2c88QaDQEcI4bPljl8TuPfKz8OfCSQPKcKx6XdNyyI2JbNQEcDq7iQUdZ04fKEAY6a6qSCyG_egZ6ngGEr9Yv8P0Bdgd8d0NFqi7o8VHzNrU-6XjSGEQzxe940lixb0qCaRgunqolTCQbpYmUSAy868sXqUwsF7eBh7YtuOie9=w385-h377" width="385" /></a></div><br /><p><span class="fullpo"><br /></span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
D.20211230類股市值佔比圖</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhm_u3NHkaZB5rb3xTXzkbeBth_qNV2xMqDD3Sj4kcI7hTfCPZ50ksczocspNT7OiqJv7eWWIezOratSZm9YJAJtcrWQObVMeh9Tg3mWg_lvFoEh9quXtOb5IsVQ7yFTOMFEf8QI3I8XHH_jplO2FkBZa1IIAJyx83hNyeQgPpjHDSXb2DKhU8MnT_l=s738" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="738" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhm_u3NHkaZB5rb3xTXzkbeBth_qNV2xMqDD3Sj4kcI7hTfCPZ50ksczocspNT7OiqJv7eWWIezOratSZm9YJAJtcrWQObVMeh9Tg3mWg_lvFoEh9quXtOb5IsVQ7yFTOMFEf8QI3I8XHH_jplO2FkBZa1IIAJyx83hNyeQgPpjHDSXb2DKhU8MnT_l=w384-h303" width="384" /></a></div><br /><span class="fullpo"><br /></span><p></p><p><span class="fullpo">至20211230 持股共43檔(比Q3:+4)</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">累計前10檔比重:37%(比Q3:-15%)</span></p><p>累計前20檔比重:72%(比Q3:-4%)</p><p><span class="fullpo">
E.結論:</span></p><p>1. 有搭上航運大波段,績效才能跟上大盤漲幅</p><p>2.期間曾有布局指數型ETF,但與心態系統操作並不順暢,仍須磨合</p><p>3.美國縮表及升息時程已近,通膨預期已啟,市場波動加劇</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-88185612244302407962021-10-01T09:57:00.005+08:002021-10-01T10:18:18.737+08:0020210930證券資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span> <p>
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lAoCWXEOXpo/YVZnTS2t64I/AAAAAAAAeRE/273YbjoSOOQXxLCde1Eu8fWLDVO_tmSQACLcBGAsYHQ/s889/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="889" height="413" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lAoCWXEOXpo/YVZnTS2t64I/AAAAAAAAeRE/273YbjoSOOQXxLCde1Eu8fWLDVO_tmSQACLcBGAsYHQ/w484-h413/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" width="484" /></a></div><br /><p>與上季底(6/30)比較:</p><p>
p>
</p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p>電信+特別股:6%--->12%(+6%)</p><p>電子:28%--->27%(-1%)</p><p>通路耗材:11%--->13%(+2%)</p><p>傳產:41%--->30%(-11%)</p><p>娛樂:2%--->4%(+2%)</p><p>金融:9%--->14%(+5%)</p><p>ETF:3%--->0%(-3%)</p><p><br /></p><p>整體持股比重與上季比較則由89%--->91%(+2%)</p><p>目前持股40檔 </p><p>前10大持股佔市值比約45%</p><p>前20大持股佔市值比約75%</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>
<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-60636048587956121852021-07-30T17:43:00.001+08:002021-08-01T15:23:03.655+08:00買了230元長榮海運(2603攤平實例)<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
<p>
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2xwYtmKcwhc/YQOyFtdFbMI/AAAAAAAAd5g/HnoBxrhfZnQrlec8pzIULzBQ-kkTFmK3QCLcBGAsYHQ/s534/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="71" data-original-width="534" height="99" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2xwYtmKcwhc/YQOyFtdFbMI/AAAAAAAAd5g/HnoBxrhfZnQrlec8pzIULzBQ-kkTFmK3QCLcBGAsYHQ/w396-h99/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D2.png" width="396" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>股票買在高點,到底要不要攤平,一直是許多人心中的疑問,怕賣了又創高,賣在阿呆股,豈不扼脘</p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p>7/6天氣晴</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EYoIF7qnpmY/YQO0ZGOSrDI/AAAAAAAAd5w/lOOPQa8Ul6sOVwSYZBubcB-gHrH2UKrhACLcBGAsYHQ/s1003/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D3.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1003" height="269" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EYoIF7qnpmY/YQO0ZGOSrDI/AAAAAAAAd5w/lOOPQa8Ul6sOVwSYZBubcB-gHrH2UKrhACLcBGAsYHQ/w412-h269/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D3.png" width="412" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">來源:元大看盤軟體</td></tr></tbody></table>2603長榮海運:<p></p><p>人氣強強滾的航運股,人稱"貨櫃三雄"之一,2021漲幅5XX%,圖型多頭排列,營收獲利創近年新高,一切都很美好~買進!!!</p><p>雖說可能進入20分鐘處置,但評估無損公司營運及獲利表現,故審慎樂觀,少量進場試單</p><p>晚上果然公告進入處置冷靜期,期間操作請看上一篇文章</p><p>網路傳出美國總統拜登,對高漲的運價將採取行政手段....額~這如果屬實,就可能影響獲利表現</p><p>股價也開始滑落,短短19個交易日(7/6~7/30)由最高點233到盤中最底點116.5,跌幅為50%,值得關注的是這是權值股,並不是中小型股,同時這也牽動著傳產股及加權指數的漲跌</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eoFvIdpmuDk/YQO7j0MhWRI/AAAAAAAAd54/MeeHHU9w858QaY2L_0EzQPjJrNQ93ChcACLcBGAsYHQ/s1040/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D4.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1040" height="246" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eoFvIdpmuDk/YQO7j0MhWRI/AAAAAAAAd54/MeeHHU9w858QaY2L_0EzQPjJrNQ93ChcACLcBGAsYHQ/w434-h246/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D4.png" width="434" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">60分K線圖<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>回到操作面:<div><br /></div><div>受處置冷靜期+乖離過大,急跌緩漲為多頭表現,且投入資金比重不高,加上基本面無反轉訊息,故選擇攤平策略</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rm2XKrW5fng/YQO-Q0XXhRI/AAAAAAAAd6A/4UwPJnHOenEyYptcgqNgJG-DgT_M0a20QCLcBGAsYHQ/s961/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="961" height="266" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rm2XKrW5fng/YQO-Q0XXhRI/AAAAAAAAd6A/4UwPJnHOenEyYptcgqNgJG-DgT_M0a20QCLcBGAsYHQ/w409-h266/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D1.png" width="409" /></a></div><br /><div>基本以當日跌停價附近為入手點,如成本與市價差距過大時也會加碼買進</div><div><br /></div><div>期間遇到看似打底,加碼買進,卻又跌破轉折價故反手賣出,系統列為當沖交易<br /><p>波段低點116.5因大盤同時大跌,擔心引爆系統性風險,故並未成交入手</p><p>總結:</p><p>此次攤平操作共11次,最低入手價127元與230元差距幅度達44.8%,期間有2次市價回升到損益兩平點,但是心態盼能讓帳面獲利,稍有遲疑,價格就又往南下探底,趨勢已成,逆勢操作更要當機立斷</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T-pSHlCrSqs/YQZLNH_LYhI/AAAAAAAAd7g/jOk7O4xV8L4hP7Ix6eEGI8b99zcY0EqwwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1902/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="1902" height="190" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T-pSHlCrSqs/YQZLNH_LYhI/AAAAAAAAd7g/jOk7O4xV8L4hP7Ix6eEGI8b99zcY0EqwwCLcBGAsYHQ/w377-h190/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" width="377" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-29JbpqEFxVU/YQZLScrQLmI/AAAAAAAAd7k/LSzrf2JuVqAqxEowUSP1ebt-miTTC-VHACLcBGAsYHQ/s1903/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="645" data-original-width="1903" height="204" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-29JbpqEFxVU/YQZLScrQLmI/AAAAAAAAd7k/LSzrf2JuVqAqxEowUSP1ebt-miTTC-VHACLcBGAsYHQ/w354-h204/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D6.png" width="354" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PIqv2qbpjIU/YQZLXJFxvgI/AAAAAAAAd7o/2zxYQNYs2XY8d7wggLJTmdiWLCS1et2mwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1904/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1904" height="210" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PIqv2qbpjIU/YQZLXJFxvgI/AAAAAAAAd7o/2zxYQNYs2XY8d7wggLJTmdiWLCS1et2mwCLcBGAsYHQ/w355-h210/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D7.png" width="355" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p>攤平並非我的操作風格,月底該做個了斷,最後就以147.5賣出,結束這一回合,系統評定獲利率:-2.95% (如上圖),個人帳記獲利率則為-1.79%(7/29留倉單影響),</p><p>攤平操作真的考驗是資金控管能力及心理抗壓性</p><p>7/30 2603收盤價:132 (走勢如下圖)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uZs-KW0yuaU/YQPHcFKEA3I/AAAAAAAAd6Q/5sKdMQvalicYq7fev__9lSxW_OiRapQIQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1003/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1003" height="197" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uZs-KW0yuaU/YQPHcFKEA3I/AAAAAAAAd6Q/5sKdMQvalicYq7fev__9lSxW_OiRapQIQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D5.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></div>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-16095673883870999532021-07-17T16:32:00.001+08:002021-07-18T02:44:33.333+08:00處置2:分盤交易(20分鐘)以長榮(2603)為例<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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</p><p>算算在金融市場交易也2X年,雖然不時聽到有股票因列入注意次數過多轉列處置措施,或是因財報因素轉入全額交割股,這類股票有些特性:</p><p>1.股本小</p><p>2.轉機性濃(虧轉盈)</p><p>3.題材炒作</p><p>所以從來沒交易過這類股票,但是這次卻因長榮(2603),開啟了第一次買入分盤20分鐘交易</p><p>
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</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">證交所公告:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EL3q7AvrL4c/YPKA5P51VRI/AAAAAAAAdzs/1poUQ9ILWgEK5BjF8F4gqVx0wKIiElu5gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1485/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="206" data-original-width="1485" height="120" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EL3q7AvrL4c/YPKA5P51VRI/AAAAAAAAdzs/1poUQ9ILWgEK5BjF8F4gqVx0wKIiElu5gCLcBGAsYHQ/w484-h120/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D.png" width="484" /></a></div><br /><p>在股市這麼多年,怎樣會領第幾款注意,集滿幾次又會領處置1.2.3...,說真的我真的算不出來,不過有APP可以參考(不過也只限於參考,準確率也非百分百)</p><p>處置1也就是5分鐘分盤交易,對於現股買賣的我並無影響,頂多就是5分鐘開獎一次;但是處置2也就是20分鐘分盤交易,除了改為20分鐘開獎一次外(開獎時間拉長價格波動區間就更大),影響最大的就是預收款券的措施,就是你買股票要先把錢放入券商的交割專戶,再告知營業員你要買的標及股票交易帳號,如交易不成立或是有差額,當日券商結算後就會把錢退回你的交割戶頭,賣股票也要先電聯營業員告知圈存股票才能下單.</p><p>綜上所述就交易流程而言,處置2措施下:買股的複雜度遠高於賣股,可能是主管機關要你在買入前冷靜些,多思考</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">接著來看看長榮(2603)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6vHJE1Q7Rqk/YPKJ4qd9kPI/AAAAAAAAdz8/pxOWz-CYGzserqnNloA2j8eSDxb_HFhkACLcBGAsYHQ/s1192/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="1192" height="210" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6vHJE1Q7Rqk/YPKJ4qd9kPI/AAAAAAAAdz8/pxOWz-CYGzserqnNloA2j8eSDxb_HFhkACLcBGAsYHQ/w454-h210/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D4.png" width="454" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">來源:台灣股市資訊網</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">處置前市值第4,準備挑戰聯發科,列入處置2後7/16市值排名退後一位成為第5</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iMrXUPdEw7Q/YPKLVHaF7BI/AAAAAAAAd0E/oSB2qXSl_NMNjyRCDbV9zDRP2prHtrOBwCLcBGAsYHQ/s619/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="619" height="248" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iMrXUPdEw7Q/YPKLVHaF7BI/AAAAAAAAd0E/oSB2qXSl_NMNjyRCDbV9zDRP2prHtrOBwCLcBGAsYHQ/w423-h248/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D1.png" width="423" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">來源:奇摩股市<br /><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">處置前7/6股價233,列入處置2後低點148.5,波段跌幅36.27%,跌破5日線及月線,區間交易量(處置1與處置2)與處置區外呈現急凍態勢</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xLISOp067O4/YPKOJd7DEgI/AAAAAAAAd0M/RhF0DAB11rsE0EYX0Cpwkhh3kMBcJ4ETwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1157/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="1157" height="177" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xLISOp067O4/YPKOJd7DEgI/AAAAAAAAd0M/RhF0DAB11rsE0EYX0Cpwkhh3kMBcJ4ETwCLcBGAsYHQ/w370-h177/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D3.png" width="370" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">來源:元大證券看盤軟體</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">雖然處置區間交易量能急凍,但是交易額排名還是常居市場前五名,不愧為市場人氣股</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">以7/16為例,成交額:174(均價)X79,352(張)=13,807,248 至少有138億現金,實實在在的鎖在券商的交割專戶,無本當沖客OUT!!!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">而這約為1.5%的周轉率,再看看另外貨運兩雄陽明19%,萬海9%,長榮真的是被關起來處置冷靜期</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">這期間融資也減少,雖然處置期也可融資但是保證金提升100%,融資名存實亡,處置其用融資沒有槓桿意義</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">閉關日剩下周一及周二,下週三7/21長榮就要出關了,(正巧逢股東會),後續怎麼表現想必是大家專注的焦點</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">最後附上處置2期間交易簡表,(打電話給營業員,好像回到剛入市場的時代)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ay_FXIcr7W8/YPKUmO1eIII/AAAAAAAAd0U/rIGT5Ewo8C88VsLof2QLQ9YNsLfO4c_1wCLcBGAsYHQ/s349/%25E6%259C%25AA%25E5%2591%25BD%25E5%2590%258D2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; 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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-24119146447187441202021-07-01T10:38:00.003+08:002021-07-18T02:46:16.091+08:0020210630證券資產概況<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
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2020年底加入了集保e存摺(手機存摺),對於我這種券商地點不在住家附近且不只一個證券帳戶的人,真是太方便了!!!直接匯總整合給你看,最近又有新功能連銀行證券戶餘額也整合進來,整個類證券資產概況就更一目了然</p><p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_NX4O9F0gH8/YN0nVUpI5PI/AAAAAAAAdt0/zTp4O6W6HvAcmM5CI-cKotED3iDyEeTpwCLcBGAsYHQ/s808/20210630%25E8%25AD%2589%25E5%2588%25B8%25E8%25B3%2587%25E7%2594%25A2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="562" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_NX4O9F0gH8/YN0nVUpI5PI/AAAAAAAAdt0/zTp4O6W6HvAcmM5CI-cKotED3iDyEeTpwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/20210630%25E8%25AD%2589%25E5%2588%25B8%25E8%25B3%2587%25E7%2594%25A2.png" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>手機存摺好處多多,不過一旦選擇了手機存摺,集保紙本存摺就立馬作廢,到券商辦理集保業務就要帶手機去刷條碼才能辦理</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vvqrsfyYyCQ/YN0ou11WAII/AAAAAAAAdt8/N-aIZyTYFsIQhcrNUQDreVgTvz-Tw4fuACLcBGAsYHQ/s848/20210630%25E6%258C%2581%25E8%2582%25A1%25E5%25B8%2582%25E5%2580%25BC%25E6%25AF%2594%25E4%25BE%258B.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="848" height="301" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vvqrsfyYyCQ/YN0ou11WAII/AAAAAAAAdt8/N-aIZyTYFsIQhcrNUQDreVgTvz-Tw4fuACLcBGAsYHQ/w350-h301/20210630%25E6%258C%2581%25E8%2582%25A1%25E5%25B8%2582%25E5%2580%25BC%25E6%25AF%2594%25E4%25BE%258B.png" width="350" /></a></div><div><br /></div>至20210630為止 持股共39檔 <br /><p>累計前10檔比重約52.25%</p><p>累計前20檔比重約76.23%</p><p>台股指數持續創下歷史新高,航運的傳奇旅程仍在進行中</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>
<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-28813360793653072432021-06-18T16:09:00.001+08:002021-07-18T02:46:52.155+08:00喜迎海運貨櫃三雄(長榮,陽明,萬海)入列台灣五十(0050)成份股<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpiwgu9HvxI/YMxIfwsT-oI/AAAAAAAAdl8/ph9ESUZd0PEv2KUzrcqWg-4A3mOYmTrLwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1003/%25E5%2585%25A50050%25E6%2596%25B0%25E8%2581%259E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="1003" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wpiwgu9HvxI/YMxIfwsT-oI/AAAAAAAAdl8/ph9ESUZd0PEv2KUzrcqWg-4A3mOYmTrLwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/%25E5%2585%25A50050%25E6%2596%25B0%25E8%2581%259E.png" width="320" /></a></div>6/4公布新成分股,並於6/18交易結束後生效!!!台灣最大被動型基金(ETF)一次將三檔航運股列入,(原本我預估只有長榮,另外兩檔為備選)<br /><p>由財經網站:台灣股市資訊網可知最新市值排名:(日更新)</p><p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9NScrdKg1z4/YMxJXysIhyI/AAAAAAAAdmE/3UguGpvRsP0uFMLdVpj4fBYRnvcDcgKWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s780/%25E5%25B8%2582%25E5%2580%25BC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="744" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9NScrdKg1z4/YMxJXysIhyI/AAAAAAAAdmE/3UguGpvRsP0uFMLdVpj4fBYRnvcDcgKWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/%25E5%25B8%2582%25E5%2580%25BC.png" /></a></div><br /><p>預估可佔約1.4%~0.8%左右,以長榮及陽明的成交量來說,這被動買盤所占比重並不高,但6/17公告長榮自6/18列入了處置:(6/18尾盤正是0050成分股轉換)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9-1vx9HEuXY/YMxMQTNUnjI/AAAAAAAAdmM/nvRTXGDrLOIwgatGH94a2kk7jW0hEXfWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1622/%25E9%2595%25B7%25E6%25A6%25AE%25E8%2599%2595%25E7%25BD%25AE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1622" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9-1vx9HEuXY/YMxMQTNUnjI/AAAAAAAAdmM/nvRTXGDrLOIwgatGH94a2kk7jW0hEXfWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/%25E9%2595%25B7%25E6%25A6%25AE%25E8%2599%2595%25E7%25BD%25AE.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>令我好奇進入處置的股票買進預收全部價金的措施,是否會影響被動基金的布局??</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j6WgswtNDoc/YMxN7iYxYsI/AAAAAAAAdmU/A2zVDGfq1qYMwknhx924EPkpa-vBFzqCgCLcBGAsYHQ/s931/%25E5%25B0%25BE%25E7%259B%25A4%25E9%2587%258F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="931" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j6WgswtNDoc/YMxN7iYxYsI/AAAAAAAAdmU/A2zVDGfq1qYMwknhx924EPkpa-vBFzqCgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/%25E5%25B0%25BE%25E7%259B%25A4%25E9%2587%258F.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>由元大看盤軟體可知:</p><p>1.多檔權值股尾盤爆大量,證實被動基金換股動作</p><p>2.長榮買進預收款,似乎無礙布局</p><p>3.萬海因為漲停鎖住,導致尾盤被動買盤無法全部滿足成交</p><p>4.友達尾盤由平盤翻黑爆大量,不排除主動操盤手想藉機吃被動基金成分調整豆腐,</p><p><br /></p><p>目前看來,在資金簇擁下,2021年航運傳說仍持續著</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-78923131470033054222021-04-09T08:56:00.001+08:002021-07-18T02:47:17.882+08:00萬里無雲晴空照,只問乖離何時攪<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kpuUuskPP4k/YG-fJPkyGzI/AAAAAAAAblM/MI2Uyia4pRc1BRSX30Ju-bxBx1zcwyLOQCLcBGAsYHQ/s796/Screenshot%2B2021-04-09%2B082354.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="796" height="349" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kpuUuskPP4k/YG-fJPkyGzI/AAAAAAAAblM/MI2Uyia4pRc1BRSX30Ju-bxBx1zcwyLOQCLcBGAsYHQ/w459-h349/Screenshot%2B2021-04-09%2B082354.jpg" width="459" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>
p>股市待得越久,持股越來越多,有開雜貨店的FU~直接做個類股分布圖看起來清爽多了哈哈</p><p>
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p>大盤盤勢:</p><p><span class="fullpo">
1.指標:高檔</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
2.型態:攻擊中</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
3.均線:多方排列</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
4.量能: 合理</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
5.時間波: 股東會前券回補</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
6.廣度:偏強
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7.市場信心:強</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
8.外資期貨:空倉</span></p><p><span class="fullpo">
9.融資餘額:2395E</span></p><p><br /></p><p>萬七挑戰賽....</p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
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<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-82844018864793954802021-02-16T22:22:00.001+08:002021-07-18T02:47:51.861+08:002020交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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2020天佑台灣,世界各地疫情不斷,唯有台灣仍屬偏安,印象中2020發生的大事有:</p><p>1.中美貿易戰持續,川普政府阻中國電子資訊產業升級</p><p>2.多國新冠疫情爆發,封城停止實體經濟活動,持續QE,維持低利率環境</p><p>3.期貨首次出現負油價;虛擬貨幣價格攀高</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9r3zRJgh8fU/YCu6bcufnpI/AAAAAAAAaMc/SRgZTokD0HAXzjs3kKpB3-Wy3Lwyw0vywCLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="589" data-original-width="704" height="240" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9r3zRJgh8fU/YCu6bcufnpI/AAAAAAAAaMc/SRgZTokD0HAXzjs3kKpB3-Wy3Lwyw0vywCLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" width="287" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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</span></p><p>由日線圖可知大盤先蹲後跳年初約12000,疫情因素三月跌破9000,回檔約25%,而後一路向上僅8~10月橫向(千點上下)盤整,隨後創高至年終,報酬指數年漲幅高達27%</p><p>個人操作年度概況如下:</p><p>1.熱度:</p><p>Q1(36%),回檔實行分批減碼策略,拉高交易熱度</p><p>Q2(19%)</p><p>Q3(23%)</p><p>Q4(22%)</p><p>年度交易筆數較前一年+103%</p><p>2.績效:</p><p><b style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: yellow;">★2020總損益</span></b><b style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: yellow;">約+5.17%★</span>[1.+4.+(2.*3.)]</b><br style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><b style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">配息率:5.72%(計入現金[40%,5.72%+40%,0.7%]則為2.57%)</b><br style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-size: 14.85px;">浮動損益率:-4.26% (防:+2.64%;攻: +6.13%) </span></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-size: 14.85px;">年末持股率:61%</span><br style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-size: 14.85px;">實現損益率:+5.2% 5. 勝率:56% </span></p><p><strong style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">單筆金額益/損比:2.22</strong></p><p>平均益單,金額比前一年:184%</p><p>平均損單,金額比前一年:-26%</p><p>已實現獲利來源佔比:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YKp7dT5xNrs/YCvONuv44mI/AAAAAAAAaMw/uxN5dI7gjTgK8xBlLjb6qbKhSh9TDC31gCLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="410" data-original-width="735" height="358" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YKp7dT5xNrs/YCvONuv44mI/AAAAAAAAaMw/uxN5dI7gjTgK8xBlLjb6qbKhSh9TDC31gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h358/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>已實現損失來源佔比:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TVbp6Po8Fqs/YCvPEagwPPI/AAAAAAAAaM8/SktyulNTSO48kaTKxAi2c5KCT7iaUHFEACLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="413" data-original-width="737" height="358" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TVbp6Po8Fqs/YCvPEagwPPI/AAAAAAAAaM8/SktyulNTSO48kaTKxAi2c5KCT7iaUHFEACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h358/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>結論:</p><p>以交易品質論,個人認為維持一定水準</p><p>操作績效僅達5%,差大盤績效太多,主因有二:</p><p>1.選股策略:偏重中小型高殖利率選股>>>>改善措施:將做調整</p><p>2.擇時策略:加減碼時間引起價格落差>>>>改善措施: 暫不變動</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span class="fullpo">
</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>
<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-54112088165317889132020-03-20T15:33:00.000+08:002020-03-20T15:34:13.943+08:00股災下的操作概念~換股<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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<br />
前篇文提到適時停損停利,便可擁有極大化的低成本資金運用(與借貸or融資比較),可是這與人性多有違背,所以能把停損停利執行到如呼吸一般自然的人並不多,尤其是多次停損在阿呆谷,而後股價再過高於成本,心魔變會長駐心中.所以今天來談另一種比較符合人性的操作法:換股<br />
p><br />
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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<span class="fullpo">線圖資料來源:<strong><span style="color: red;">元大證券;奇摩股市</span></strong><span style="color: red;"></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vamlmzRIdzU/XnQ5RLCTTxI/AAAAAAAAP20/0FsegGGz_rod-ozscPkhJcpIBaTpNtTpQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/20200320%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E7%259B%25A4%25E6%2597%25A5%25E7%25B7%259A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="1403" height="147" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vamlmzRIdzU/XnQ5RLCTTxI/AAAAAAAAP20/0FsegGGz_rod-ozscPkhJcpIBaTpNtTpQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/20200320%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E7%259B%25A4%25E6%2597%25A5%25E7%25B7%259A.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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股災下跌總是又急又快,本次下跌(年初計算到3/19止)大盤跌幅達27%接近三成,如圖示3/6開始為跳水段呈90度崩跌,之前沒做停損停利,這段期間停損出清也是會有不少的損失<br />
股災所以為股災,代表並非個體公司因素,而是大環境變數,導致大多數公司股價下跌,並帶出群眾恐慌乎心裡,拋售持股,加重股市賣壓,導致股價一再破底<br />
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股災換股實戰:<br />
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1.雖說股災時全體公司下跌居多,但個別公司下跌幅度還是有區分<br />
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0050台灣五十 3/5~3/19 由90.2--->68.55 跌幅約24%<br />
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2412中華電 3/5~3/19 由110--->105.5跌幅約4%<br />
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2.平時一貫以滿水位持股操作(手邊幾乎不留現金),以致股災時無多餘資金再低接;或是不喜增加持股比重者<br />
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做法: 跌幅一段時日後,賣跌幅少的換跌幅大的<br />
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3/19 大盤再度崩跌 (波段跌幅近三成)<br />
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啟動換股機制:<br />
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換股需要選擇跌深的,但是又怕到時大盤反彈時並不會跟著反彈,而0050台灣五十可以解決這個困境<br />
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3/20 大盤強勢反彈單日升幅6.37%<br />
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3/20 換股標的收盤價及單日升跌幅度: 分別為7.95% 及0.95% 差距達7% ,符合換股效益!!!<br />
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最後,祝大家操作順利~安穩度過股災<br />
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<br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-27320651553992897952020-03-17T10:10:00.000+08:002020-03-17T10:10:50.209+08:00由新冠(武漢)肺炎股災看停損停利+實戰<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span> 輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!! <br />
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世間一切交易能成交定有買賣雙方,買方只要能滿足賣方需求即可,或是金錢或是勞務(工作)也可是物品(以物易物).但在金融交易中,賣方只接受金錢為單一交易媒介,當賣方很簡單,<br />
只要有交易標的,加一個價格,你就是潛在賣方<br />
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<span class="fullpo">而買</span>方則需要購買力,代表能在交割時交付約定金額,履行買方義務,由此看出資本對買方是重中之重,擁有無限資本,要買啥就買啥的情境是買方的最高境界(口袋很深),但多數人都受制於有限資本,故產生1.集資擴大資本(如基金,ETF,私募等)2.保全保護資本(停損停利模式),二者可交互運用,並不衝突<br />
p> <br />
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span> <br />
<a name='more'></a><span class="fullpo"> </span> <span class="fullpo">線圖資料來源:<span style="color: red;"><b>元大證券軟體</b></span></span><br />
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保護資本:天有不測風雲],投資有風險,結算虧損(並非單筆小額虧損)會拖累你資產累積速度!!!<br />
虧損20%後須靠25%獲利才能回到原點(拿回本金),而虧損50%後則須靠100%獲利,才能回到白忙一場之境<br />
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壓低成本:買方想買低價是本能,賣高價是期待,二者實現就是優質買家,也會維持資本成長,自發性的保護資本,但過久持有期會影響資本流動性,則須權衡取捨<br />
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總之,想買就買是買方最高境界,代表擁有源源不絕的銀彈,在有限資本前提下,須靠停損停利來達成!!!<br />
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基本觀念建立了,接著利用這次武肺股災造成全球性系統風險來加深印記:<br />
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本布落格記錄:<br />
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武肺股災起始點附近:<br />
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時間軸由下而上,持股比重變化:<br />
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階段調整後(3/6)的持股水位: 68->39 減持約42%,清除高額曝險部位,<br />
現金水位由32->61增加近一倍!!!<br />
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同期台股大盤走勢(日線):11800成頸線,2/13;2/20二次都無法站回!!!<br />
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同期台股大盤走勢(週線): 3/16指數位階等於2020花不到3個月吃下2019全年漲幅,如果沒做調整等於2019帳面獲利一場空,淪為紙上富貴<br />
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實戰明細: 2/14開始調整至3/3調整完畢<br />
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最後,減持調整是個過程,並非終點,目的是為了低點買入擴大持有部位!! 沒有做到後者是無法達到優異的績效~ 共勉之<br />
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<br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-71741908971891738322020-01-28T16:09:00.002+08:002020-01-28T16:19:09.943+08:002019交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span> 輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!! <br />
節錄2018回顧中對2019展望:<br />
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2019~貿易戰持續ING~台股雖然經過5~9月回檔打底,但依然無礙上漲格局:<br />
<strong style="color: #3d85c6;">2019年度:加權指:始9727收11997(+23.34%) ;報酬指:始17354收22373(+28.92%)</strong><br />
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個人第10年交易系統記錄如下:<br />
p> <br />
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span> <br />
<a name='more'></a><span class="fullpo"> </span> <br />
<b><span style="color: yellow;">★2019總損益</span></b><b><span style="color: yellow;">約+11.56%★</span>[1.+4.+(2.*3.)]</b><br />
<b>配息率:6.69%(計入現金[38%,0.8%]則為4.45%)</b><br />
浮動損益率:+10.01% (防:+8.41%;攻: +10.33%)<br />
年末持股率:66%<br />
實現損益率:+0.40%<br />
勝率:71%<br />
<strong>單筆金額益/損比:<span style="color: red;">0</span></strong><strong><span style="color: red;">.58</span></strong><br />
平均益單,金額比前一年:<span style="color: red;">-48%</span><br />
平均損單,金額比前一年: <span style="color: red;">+160%</span><br />
年度買賣交易筆數比前一年:-49%<br />
已實現獲利來源佔比:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Xs8wMijipk/Xi_fzaXdinI/AAAAAAAANqw/pLJ84MeDO-oOTzkdI7ugrb9fvzDTIPITgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="334" data-original-width="447" height="239" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Xs8wMijipk/Xi_fzaXdinI/AAAAAAAANqw/pLJ84MeDO-oOTzkdI7ugrb9fvzDTIPITgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/2019%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>已實現損失來源佔比:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxYobCl0R64/Xi_gB6-fJVI/AAAAAAAANq0/IotjRIK4DL8avVIluHAyOtr-wFxkyEbpwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="313" data-original-width="512" height="195" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxYobCl0R64/Xi_gB6-fJVI/AAAAAAAANq0/IotjRIK4DL8avVIluHAyOtr-wFxkyEbpwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/2019%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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小結:<br />
1.中小型持股策略,在以台積電為主持續吸納資金上漲行情中,形成操作頻率萎縮<br />
2.2019操作績效與大盤差距幅度大,所幸仍順利達成連續10年操作系統正報酬<br />
3.持有多年的未上市股在2019轉上市,順勢部分獲利了結,這不列入操作績效(後續此股出脫也不會列入), 不過導致2019入帳配息並未如先前規劃(領轉生活費用支出),而是當做新資金再投入,這在上漲行情中會拉低績效表現<br />
4.平均損單金額有向下調整的空間<br />
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展望:<br />
2020開始,武漢病毒蔓延,中國城鎮陸續封城,台灣防疫嚴正以待,中美貿易戰仍持續,台灣選舉紅利已結束,但2020仍有美國總統選舉.目前台股多頭趨勢仍在,但利多因子已減少,變數持續增加,區間震盪機率大增<br />
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lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-67376640162572081982019-01-01T12:43:00.000+08:002019-01-03T17:30:52.110+08:002018交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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<br />
2018~全球市場是個上下震盪的一年,報導指出除了現金及美元,其餘93%資產交出負報酬<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xAlcWUrBqQo/XCrQ4j_s7XI/AAAAAAAAFus/uEyv90ZU4RwQQWLuKluyhTbPmHdJ2ugfwCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%25E5%2590%2584%25E8%25B3%2587%25E7%2594%25A2%25E5%25A0%25B1%25E9%2585%25AC.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="895" height="183" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xAlcWUrBqQo/XCrQ4j_s7XI/AAAAAAAAFus/uEyv90ZU4RwQQWLuKluyhTbPmHdJ2ugfwCLcBGAs/s320/2018%25E5%2590%2584%25E8%25B3%2587%25E7%2594%25A2%25E5%25A0%25B1%25E9%2585%25AC.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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台股則為: <strong style="color: #3d85c6;">加權指:始10642收9727(-8.59%) ;報酬指:始18234收17354(-4.82%)</strong><br />
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個人交易系統第九年度統計如下:<br />
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p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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<a name='more'></a>勝率:75%<br />
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單筆金額益/損比:405%<br />
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平均益單,金額比前一年:+73%<br />
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平均損單,金額比前一年: +1%<br />
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年度買賣交易筆數比前一年:-30% (交易熱區請見上一篇文章)</div>
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已實現獲利(取獲利佔比高於總獲利5%為代表):</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zPaZ6nU-jPw/XCrX6F5B4MI/AAAAAAAAFu4/YzvQm4mxEngnVQOHCe2v4UAAW--gqc_ugCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="685" height="181" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zPaZ6nU-jPw/XCrX6F5B4MI/AAAAAAAAFu4/YzvQm4mxEngnVQOHCe2v4UAAW--gqc_ugCLcBGAs/s320/2018%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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已實現損失:</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_cUf_z3lBwo/XCrYcYxkDMI/AAAAAAAAFvA/yUyftYQf9TQwWvOv6Y0UBqla-uVq3aeIQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="619" height="215" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_cUf_z3lBwo/XCrYcYxkDMI/AAAAAAAAFvA/yUyftYQf9TQwWvOv6Y0UBqla-uVq3aeIQCLcBGAs/s320/2018%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="fullpo">配息率:6.11%(含現金[50%,0.8%]:3.45%)</span><br />
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<span class="fullpo">浮動損益率:-4.81% </span><br />
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<span class="fullpo">年末持股率:56%</span><br />
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<span class="fullpo">實現損益率:+5.14% </span><br />
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<span class="fullpo">★2018總損益約+5.90%★[1.+4.+(2.*3.)]</span><br />
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小結:<br />
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2017年浮動損益率5.45%-->2018年實現損益率5.14%且浮動損益率-4.81%(與報酬指相當)代表將2017年的戰果相當程度的保留下來,免除下跌段侵蝕戰果<br />
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系統規劃以配息所得支應生活開支,並借由轉化過程自然調降股票資產佔總資產比重,但近兩年持股率偏低導致配息金額低於開支所需,從而由股市資金池出金補足兩者差額 ,但此舉會造成持股率被動調升<br />
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稅制變革:個別股票可扣抵稅額廢除改為由報稅戶股息股利收入之8.5%計算扣抵稅額,這擴大了系統口袋名單<br />
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結論:<br />
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1.系統於報酬指數年報酬為負的條件下,優勢仍在:<br />
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<span class="fullpo">2011報酬指:-17% </span>操作系統: +21%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2015報酬指: -6% </span>操作系統: +2%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2018報酬指: -4% </span>操作系統: +5%<br />
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3/3=100%<br />
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不過,仍如2017回顧文所述系統無經歷空頭複數年考驗,優勢未完全確立!!<br />
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2.系統戰略目標達成!!(連續九年正報酬)<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">總損益年收益率以打敗定存年利率為低標,再求跟上報酬指數報酬率!!</span></b><br />
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展望2019中美貿易戰仍持續進行,兩大經濟體的角力,台灣很難置身事外.不過一路走來企業本就練出不凡應變能力,2019應該是充滿驚奇的一年!!<br />
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2019 穩健長久 與大家共勉之~</div>
lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-45318745814060335432018-12-28T16:48:00.001+08:002018-12-28T16:48:04.022+08:002018 啦啦雜雜隨寫<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span>
輔助文章資料如損及您的權利,煩請告知,當盡速清除!!
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<br />
BLOG上一篇文章是2018/1/2發文....到現在2018/12/28才又有這篇文章,一年才兩篇文章,我真是一個不認真的部落客XDDD<br />
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不過一年只有兩篇文章的部落格,每個月居然有800~900閱覽人次,2018Q4平均提升到1300,其中12月累積至28日更來到了歷史次高!!! 這不寫一篇文章記錄一下,真說不過去.<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PFyeyl7Ql_c/XCXXrfw8B6I/AAAAAAAAFtg/OcrroznJLmoy41WXUx0U8cikymhrZHFxgCLcBGAs/s1600/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E6%25AC%25A1%25E8%2587%25B32018.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="814" height="177" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PFyeyl7Ql_c/XCXXrfw8B6I/AAAAAAAAFtg/OcrroznJLmoy41WXUx0U8cikymhrZHFxgCLcBGAs/s320/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E6%25AC%25A1%25E8%2587%25B32018.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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觀眾群不意外台灣居首,美國加拿大次之..不過排名第四的"未知地區"是啥??(寶傑,你怎麼看)<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dnMSwi4nkbQ/XCXbuF5q26I/AAAAAAAAFts/BmpP2Ji89tcdPnimNSpE622uHrpWnznsQCLcBGAs/s1600/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E5%259C%258B%25E5%2588%25A5.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="427" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dnMSwi4nkbQ/XCXbuF5q26I/AAAAAAAAFts/BmpP2Ji89tcdPnimNSpE622uHrpWnznsQCLcBGAs/s320/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E5%259C%258B%25E5%2588%25A5.JPG" width="266" /></a></div>
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接下這項是瀏覽器市場趨勢的轉變: 全時期累計IE排名第2<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9TILWH8acfM/XCXcrHdkeUI/AAAAAAAAFt0/YNlu284eQQYgmK62VY2RYVJjXo3ACwlewCLcBGAs/s1600/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E7%25AA%2597%25E5%2588%25A5%25E7%25B4%25AF%25E8%25A8%25882010%25E5%2588%25B02018.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="346" data-original-width="711" height="155" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9TILWH8acfM/XCXcrHdkeUI/AAAAAAAAFt0/YNlu284eQQYgmK62VY2RYVJjXo3ACwlewCLcBGAs/s320/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E7%25AA%2597%25E5%2588%25A5%25E7%25B4%25AF%25E8%25A8%25882010%25E5%2588%25B02018.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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但以最近2018DEC單月來看:IE已被邊緣化,市場由谷歌及火狐兩強瓜分<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--J1Q5Tk53_w/XCXeDVSiwjI/AAAAAAAAFuA/5wFnmd0EdPoE6eY5Htfg95XeF2Z1u2usQCLcBGAs/s1600/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E7%25AA%2597%25E5%2588%25A5201812%25E6%259C%2588.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="743" height="103" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--J1Q5Tk53_w/XCXeDVSiwjI/AAAAAAAAFuA/5wFnmd0EdPoE6eY5Htfg95XeF2Z1u2usQCLcBGAs/s320/blog%25E7%2580%258F%25E8%25A6%25BD%25E7%25AA%2597%25E5%2588%25A5201812%25E6%259C%2588.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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最後,這是一個財經部落格,一定要帶到相關題材,2018台股交易日至12/28算是告一段落,個人系統統計數據也正陸續出爐,2018算是半休息的年度,交易筆數比2017年銳減30%.下圖為2018年季度交易熱區參考圖:<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iOvx1mk_kkc/XCXhhMtdGmI/AAAAAAAAFuM/AunqBym02agblItMB9-nmRWF0qiG0yUPgCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%25E4%25BA%25A4%25E6%2598%2593%25E7%2586%25B1%25E5%258D%2580.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="735" height="239" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iOvx1mk_kkc/XCXhhMtdGmI/AAAAAAAAFuM/AunqBym02agblItMB9-nmRWF0qiG0yUPgCLcBGAs/s320/2018%25E4%25BA%25A4%25E6%2598%2593%25E7%2586%25B1%25E5%258D%2580.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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其他更詳細的數據,請待2018交易回顧一文分曉</div>
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謝謝您的支持,願您平安順心,我們2019年見~</div>
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lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-71670246332427129912018-01-02T13:42:00.000+08:002019-01-03T17:31:12.845+08:002017交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span><br />
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揮別2017,跨入2018!!<br />
交易系統記錄自2010/1/1至2017年已完成8個年度(也是離開職場的滿五個年度),8年並不算短,期許能一路走下去,本次回顧除了例行性的台股操作,文末特別增加1.基金部位及2.海外投資,這兩塊資產拼圖(紀錄2017多頭年XD)<br />
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2017交易統計:<br />
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勝率:87%<br />
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平均每筆益/損金額比:237%<br />
p> <br />
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span> <br />
<a name='more'></a><span class="fullpo"> </span> 平均益單,金額比前一年:+46%<br />
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平均損單,金額比前一年: -81%<br />
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年度買賣交易筆數比前一年:+58%<br />
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已實現獲利(取獲利佔比高於總獲利5%為代表)<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pUDBCww7vYY/Wkr7jnqUDVI/AAAAAAAAFng/heQWQiAYUvchv62DA2XvY5qiWrfopz6rQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="690" height="238" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pUDBCww7vYY/Wkr7jnqUDVI/AAAAAAAAFng/heQWQiAYUvchv62DA2XvY5qiWrfopz6rQCLcBGAs/s400/2017%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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已實現損失(取損失佔比高於總損失5%為代表)<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4bNMZm_HGVQ/Wkr73dHj7lI/AAAAAAAAFnk/hO5mjaKXmTYM6nZbJDzqItNIFzexIfWpgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="614" height="271" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4bNMZm_HGVQ/Wkr73dHj7lI/AAAAAAAAFnk/hO5mjaKXmTYM6nZbJDzqItNIFzexIfWpgCLcBGAs/s400/2017%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="fullpo">1. 配息率:6.14%(含現金[52%,0.8%]:3.36%)</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">2. 浮動損益率:+5.45% (防:+7.26%;攻: +12.17%) ;</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">3. 年末持股率:35%</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">4. 實現損益率:+9.98% </span><br />
<span class="fullpo">★2017總損益約+15.25%★[1.+4.+(2.*3.)] </span><br />
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</span> <span class="fullpo">2017年度:加權指:始9253.50收10642(+15.01%) ;報酬指:始15256收18234(+19.52%)</span><br />
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</span> <span class="fullpo">結論:</span><br />
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</span> <span class="fullpo">35%低持股率,以年末記錄而言,是8年內首次低於70%水準,更低於這8年持股平均值(約75%),這並非單純以大盤上萬點為基點的概略調整,而是考量預估殖利率偏低而無法啟動買進策略</span><br />
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</span> <span class="fullpo">這亦造成2017年系統總損益低於報酬指數約4%的主因,不過這套系統在報酬指數年報酬高於10%的條件下,本來就處於劣勢:</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">2010報酬指:+13% 操作系統:+12%</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">2012報酬指:+12% </span>操作系統: +6%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2013報酬指:+15% </span>操作系統:+18%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2014報酬指:+11% </span>操作系統: +2%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2016報酬指:+15% </span>操作系統:+12%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2017報酬指:+19% </span>操作系統:+15%<br />
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1/6 =16%<br />
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其優勢在於報酬指數年報酬為負的條件下:<br />
<span class="fullpo">2011報酬指:-17% </span>操作系統: +21%<br />
<span class="fullpo">2015報酬指: -6% </span>操作系統: +2%<br />
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2/2=100%<br />
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樣本僅屬於多頭趨勢中的修正段,系統無經歷空頭複數年考驗,優勢尚未完全確立!!<br />
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總之,2017年的系統操作非常舒服,進出都符合自己的節奏,結果也符合系統戰略目標:<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">總損益年收益率以打敗定存年利率為低標,再求跟上報酬指數報酬率!!</span></b><br />
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關於基金部位:<br />
離開職場前一年,就已淡出基金操作,目前部位僅是持有,未來也沒新增部位的打算,至2017年底年化報酬率約6%<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-00idwT3BmtQ/WksW4_ppInI/AAAAAAAAFn4/1L0RXGsyo9M6oTgELqAtDWtrCqM7arNXQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%25E5%259F%25BA%25E9%2587%2591.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="892" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-00idwT3BmtQ/WksW4_ppInI/AAAAAAAAFn4/1L0RXGsyo9M6oTgELqAtDWtrCqM7arNXQCLcBGAs/s640/2017%25E5%259F%25BA%25E9%2587%2591.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="fullpo">關於海外投資:</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">這塊偏向長期投資,高持股率,進出頻率偏低,以ETF,控股公司為主,個別公司為輔,</span><br />
<span class="fullpo">2017年海外資產增長率約18%</span><br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vbzycZNjzso/WksZqCooHzI/AAAAAAAAFoE/VdA9JTANMHAHGbplmnkAKZPxqpd--eFXQCLcBGAs/s1600/IB2017%25E5%2589%25AA%25E5%2589%25AA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="906" height="480" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vbzycZNjzso/WksZqCooHzI/AAAAAAAAFoE/VdA9JTANMHAHGbplmnkAKZPxqpd--eFXQCLcBGAs/s640/IB2017%25E5%2589%25AA%25E5%2589%25AA.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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最後以 修心為重,資控為要,技術為輔 與大家共勉之!!!<br />
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<br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-71547854930318259122017-01-19T15:00:00.001+08:002017-01-19T15:49:39.218+08:00隨想:稅改啟動 擬取消兩稅合一<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span><br />
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2017-01-16 00:59:53 經濟日報 記者沈婉玉、林潔玲、邱金蘭/台北報導</h3>
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財政部今年啟動所得稅稅改工程,委外期中報告今(16)日出爐。據了解,在參考各國股利課稅制度後,委外研究提出,取消現行兩稅合一制度,股利所得改採「分離課稅」或「部分計入(部分免稅)」兩方案,以縮短內外資的稅負差距,減輕股民負擔。</div>
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為符合賦稅公平原則,避免稅率低的散戶被錯殺,將配套提出股利抵減額或將股利納入27萬元利息免稅額。</div>
<a href="https://money.udn.com/money/story/5648/2232186" target="_blank">稅改啟動 擬取消兩稅合一</a><br />
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只分析應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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<span data-offset-key="4vba4-0-0">VL短評:目前海外所得有670萬免稅額度,兩稅合一取消後,錢可能轉為海外債,股,基金配息即可轉入免稅額度,如果修法為"投資及海外所得免稅額670萬"(即國內配股配息也佔這670萬的額度),這樣大小戶應該都很高興,不過原本以經用滿670萬的人+政府可能不願意XD
</span><span data-offset-key="d37h9-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span><span data-offset-key="3hfth-0-0">這是一個大水庫概念:
1.原本免稅額度已存在,不用再額外創設,能用多少是你的本事2.海外債券型基金配息就可有670萬額度,存股族只配拿27萬?(且佔利息額度?).
3.海外所得額度由開始得600萬提高至670(大戶才有話語權),如存股族自己獨立一個額度,到時要提高額度喊破喉嚨也沒啥人理,有提高也可能只有一丁點(原額度小)
</span><span data-offset-key="6j3hs-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span><span data-offset-key="5ov21-0-0">總之:海外所得免稅額與股息免稅額的巨額差距下~政府想增加台股交易量與稅收....只能強化台股投機風氣....這將打造出畸形制度,也無法打消聰明錢流出海外先佔滿670萬免稅額的意圖!!
</span><span data-offset-key="2i02v-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span><span data-offset-key="1h8di-0-0">合併額度一體適用670萬免稅額,不因領國內股票股息免稅額,而與領基金配息的免稅額有差別待遇,就如同目前政府為杜絕假外資的免稅誘因,想走分離課稅,打造內外資稅率一致化是相同概念,一個是走稅率均等,另一個則是投資標的免稅額均等(除權息後不論價格或淨值皆會扣除,左手換右手概念)</span></div>
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<span data-offset-key="1h8di-0-0">既然廢除扣抵額度勢在必行,那就別再讓願意長期投資國內的人處在太多租稅劣勢,或借由犧牲長期投資者利益(最不會發聲的弱勢投資族群),來補貼短線交易成本(當沖稅負減免)來衝高成交量,並引導投資人忽視價值,重視價差的偏差心態(高周轉率好棒棒!!)</span></div>
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<br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-23648895395852307862017-01-10T22:29:00.000+08:002017-01-10T22:29:18.549+08:002016交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span><br />
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2016交易統計:<br />
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勝率::47%<br />
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平均每筆益/損比:0.31....新低<br />
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p>
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當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為個人分析應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span>
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平均益單,金額比前一年:-67%<br />
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平均損單,金額比前一年:-43%<br />
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年度買賣交易數比前一 年:-41%....新低<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t08KDtzhacU/WHTW5JRMFCI/AAAAAAAAE48/VQQFqOlfHsQSb0qMEq0TGJWkVTyRaC1BgCLcB/s1600/2016%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9%25E4%25BE%2586%25E6%25BA%2590.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="189" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t08KDtzhacU/WHTW5JRMFCI/AAAAAAAAE48/VQQFqOlfHsQSb0qMEq0TGJWkVTyRaC1BgCLcB/s320/2016%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9%25E4%25BE%2586%25E6%25BA%2590.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w_HoEE7Inx0/WHTW7_3MBPI/AAAAAAAAE5A/krTo7kVML0YvdfUSdz1UhVft8S_eZEqJwCLcB/s1600/2016%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1%25E4%25BE%2586%25E6%25BA%2590.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w_HoEE7Inx0/WHTW7_3MBPI/AAAAAAAAE5A/krTo7kVML0YvdfUSdz1UhVft8S_eZEqJwCLcB/s320/2016%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1%25E4%25BE%2586%25E6%25BA%2590.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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在<a href="http://aromafish.blogspot.tw/2016/01/2015.html#more" target="_blank">2015交易回顧</a>結尾寫到:<br />
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2015年度功課:核心持股停損<br />
因應措施: 1.心態調整:降低交易數 2.風控:限制單一持股上限<br />
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由2016資料看來交易數確實下降,比起峰值(2014)降低72%,不過益損比0.31也創新低,表示交易難度提升,難度提升下操作本應保守些以免產生過度交易,至於勝率回升可正面看待<br />
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2016台股操作損益約為+12.03%(息值6.52%,已實現-1.93%,未實現+8.65%,持股水位86%),高於2015年+2.71%,但低於2016報酬指數(+15.59%)<br />
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lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2208663066866825135.post-73667475371060770012016-01-03T15:49:00.000+08:002016-07-18T13:43:31.709+08:002015交易回顧<span style="color: red;">文章僅為個人觀察心得,並不作為投資依據.</span><br />
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回顧2015交易資料, 簡單的說可以稱是2014交易的延伸<br />
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p> <br />
當您點入<strong>閱讀更多</strong>,表示已同意::<span style="color: red;">閱讀本文只為技術分析機率應用,與讀者投資行為無關!!</span>;<span style="color: #3d85c6;">如不同意,則勿點入,一切到此為止,關閉本網頁即可!!</span> <br />
<a name='more'></a><span class="fullpo"> </span> <br />
在2014交易回顧一文中提到...<br />
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<span style="color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">一檔主要持股發佈非常態性利空...</span></span><span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">我放寬的停損限定,並付出2014績效作為代價</span><br />
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-----> 2015交易中我停損了<br />
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<span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">2014的上半年,一連串的停利,已實現獲利不斷的累積</span><br />
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------>2015上半年,就是一連串的停損,已實現損失也不斷的累積<br />
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已下為2015交易統計:<br />
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勝率:32% .....新低<br />
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<span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">平均每筆益/損金額比:55%</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">平均益單,金額比前一年:+12%</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">平均損單,金額比前一年:+393%.....創新高</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #1c1c1c; color: #cccccc; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 16.632px;">年度買賣交易數比前一年:-52%</span><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8XOjlEz_61M/VojJDi0taTI/AAAAAAAAA-E/B4WW15maQbw/s1600/2015%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8XOjlEz_61M/VojJDi0taTI/AAAAAAAAA-E/B4WW15maQbw/s1600/2015%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E7%258D%25B2%25E5%2588%25A9.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QwY746hYMd0/VojJqIAC7XI/AAAAAAAAA-M/3zP-OeZAE5I/s1600/2015%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QwY746hYMd0/VojJqIAC7XI/AAAAAAAAA-M/3zP-OeZAE5I/s320/2015%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E7%258F%25BE%25E6%2590%258D%25E5%25A4%25B1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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2015台股操作損益約為:+2.71%(息值5.9%,已實現-12.77%,未實現+11.12%,持股水位70%),略高於2014年+2.07%,且高於2015報酬指數(-6.87%)<br />
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2015年度功課:核心持股停損<br />
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因應措施: 1.心態調整:降低交易數 2.風控:限制單一持股上限<br />
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<br />lintaiyuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15261946900266065941noreply@blogger.com0